Experimental designs for environmental valuation with choice-experiments: A Monte Carlo investigation

We review the practice of experimental design in the environmental economics literature concerned with choice experiments. We then contrast this with advances in the field of experimental design and present a comparison of statistical efficiency across four different experimental designs evaluated by Monte Carlo experiments. Two different situations are envisaged. First, a correct a priori knowledge of the multinomial logit specification used to derive the design and then an incorrect one. The data generating process is based on estimates from data of a real choice experiment with which preference for rural landscape attributes were studied. Results indicate the D-optimal designs are promising, especially those based on Bayesian algorithms with informative prior. However, if good a priori information is lacking, and if there is strong uncertainty about the real data generating process - conditions which are quite common in environmental valuation - then practitioners might be better off with conventional fractional designs from linear models. Under misspecification, a design of this type produces less biased estimates than its competitors

The referendum incentive compatibility hypothesis: Some new results using information messages

We report results from a laboratory experiment that allows us to test the incentive compatibility hypothesis of hypothetical referenda used in CV studies through the public or private provision of information messages. One of the main methodological issues about hypothetical markets regards whether people behave differently when bidding for a public good through casting a ballot vote than when they are privately purchasing an equivalent good. This study tried to address the core of this issue by using a good that can be traded both as private and public: information messages. This allows the elimination of confounding effects associated with the specific good employed. In our case information dispels some of the uncertainty about a potential gain from a gamble. So, the approximate value of the message can be inferred once the individual measure of risk aversion is known. Decision tasks are then framed in a systematic manner according to the hypothetical vs real nature of the decision and the public vs private nature of the message. A sample of 536 university students across three countries (I, UK and NZ) participated into this lab experiment. The chosen countries reflect diversity in exposure to the practice of advisory (NZ) and abrogative (Italy) referenda, with the UK not having any exposure to it. Under private provision the results show that the fraction of participants unwilling to buy information is slightly higher in the real treatment than in the hypothetical one. Under public provision, instead, there is no statistical difference between real and hypothetical settings, confirming in part the finding of previous researchers. A verbal protocol analysis of the thought processes during choice highlights that public provision of information systematically triggers concerns and motivations different from those arising under the private provision setting. These findings suggest that the incentive compatibility of public referenda is likely to rely more on affective and psychological factors than on the strategic behaviour assumptions theorised by economists

Waikato warm home study

New Zealand houses are cold, damp, and poorly insulated by international standards. Our substandard housing stock has negative effects on health, quality of life, productivity, winter air quality, energy use and transmission. Investment in home energy efficiency is below the socially optimal level due to information asymmetries, bounded rationality and to some degree, non-excludability. Uptake of government grants for insulation has been very low in some communities, especially by owners of private rental properties. This study examines consumer preferences and perceptions of home energy efficiency technologies for residents of the Waikato region. We use a choice experiment approach to determine willingness to pay by owner-occupiers, landlords and tenants. Owner-occupiers are willing to pay significantly more than landlords for all features except for double-glazing. Tenants score their homes lower in terms of warmth and comfort than the landlord, and are willing to pay higher rent for improved insulation. However, the majority of tenants don’t know what insulation their home already has. Solving this information asymmetry problem with home energy ratings may be a more efficient way to increase investment than larger subsidies for landlords.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Health Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Dynamics of wide binary stars: A case study for testing Newtonian dynamics in the low acceleration regime

Extremely wide binary stars represent ideal systems to probe Newtonian dynamics in the low acceleration regimes (<10e-10 m/s/s) typical of the external regions of galaxies. Here we present a study of 60 alleged wide binary stars with projected separation ranging from 0.004 to 1 pc, probing gravitational accelerations well below the limit were dark matter or modified dynamics theories set in. Radial velocities with accuracy ~100 m/s were obtained for each star, in order to constrain their orbital velocity, that, together with proper motion data, can distinguish bound from unbound systems. It was found that about half of the observed pairs do have velocity in the expected range for bound systems, out to the largest separations probed here. In particular, we identified five pairs with projected separation >0.15 pc that are useful for the proposed test. While it would be premature to draw any conclusion about the validity of Newtonian dynamics at these low accelerations, our main result is that very wide binary stars seem to exist in the harsh environment of the solar neighborhood. This could provide a tool to test Newtonian dynamics versus modified dynamics theories in the low acceleration conditions typical of galaxies. In the near future the GAIA satellite will provide data to increase significantly the number of wide pairs that, with the appropriate follow up spectroscopic observations, will allow the implementation of this experiment with unprecedented accuracy.Comment: Accepted for publication on International Journal of Modern Physics

Protection Motivation Theory and Contingent Valuation: Perceived Realism, Threat and WTP Estimates for Biodiversity Protection

We report on a discrete-choice CV study conducted in Germany to value the WTP for biodiversity protection in less developed countries. To systematically investigate survey realism and subjective threat assessment from the loss of biodiversity described in the scenario the study includes questions to uncover the constructs of Protection Motivation Theory, which is introduced to the CV literature. The patterns of responses to such questions are analysed using an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to derive class membership probabilities. These are found to match the predictions of Protection Motivation Theory and systematically improve the logistic analysis of the WTP responses.Biodiversity valuation, Protection motivation theory, Latent class analysis, Expectation-Maximization algorithm, Contingent valuation

Designs efficiency for non-market valuation with choice modelling: how to measure it, what to report and why

We review the basic principles for the evaluation of design efficiency in discrete choice modelling with a focus on efficiency of WTP estimates from the multinomial logit model. The discussion is developed under the realistic assumption that researchers can plausibly define a prior on the utility coefficients. Some new measures of design performance in applied studies are proposed and their rationale discussed. An empirical example based on the generation and comparison of fifteen separate designs from a common set of assumptions illustrates the relevant considerations to the context of non-market valuation, with particular emphasis placed on C-efficiency. Conclusions are drawn for the practice of reporting in non-market valuation and for future work on design research

Destination Choice Models for Rock Climbing in the Northeast Alps: A Latent-Class Approach Based on Intensity of Participation

Practitioners of outdoor sports, such as rock-climbers, are likely to exhibit preference heterogeneity that depends on the ‘keenness’ with which such sports are practiced. Such an intuition is born out in at least one study using latent class discrete choice modelling (Provencher et al. 2002). Preference heterogeneity has a reflection on the population’s structure of recreational values assigned to rock-climbing destinations, to their attributes and ultimately to land management policies addressing such attributes. In this study such hypothesis is tested on a panel of destination choices by a sample of rock-climbers members of the Veneto Chapter of the Italian Alpine Club. Preliminary estimates of latent-class (finite-mixing) specifications provided evidence that intensity of participation explained heterogeneity in taste. This motivated our splitting of the sample in a ‘high’ and a ‘low’ intensity of participation sub-samples, each of which is in turn analysed for the presence of endogenous preference classes using latent-class random utility based approaches. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that there are at least four statistically well-defined classes in each sub-sample, thereby revealing a considerable richness in the structure of preference, which would otherwise be unobservable in more conventional approaches. From the model estimates, we first focus on the derivation of posterior individual specific welfare measures for some key destination attributes, and then for a welfare neutral land management policy. One emerging feature is the strong evidence of multi-modal distribution of values, a feature that is more difficult to capture when preference heterogeneity is modelled by other means. The results also show how the proposed policy is progressive in terms of benefit distribution in the sample, and that the distribution of individual welfare changes shows markedly different patterns between high and low demand sub-samples.Travel cost model, Preference heterogeneity, Non-market valuation, Random utility model, Latent class analysis, Rock-climbing, Destination choice modelling